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Barbarians at the Gate
by Rick Morris  -  Feb 17^th, 2004

Fantasy championships are won and lost on the ability to correctly identify players about to experience breakthrough years. After all, value is one of the core elements of fantasy success, so it stands to reason that finding a first-round value in the seventh round would greatly help a team pushing for a championship. 

Every year, several players emerge as breakthrough stars whose value in August and September far outshines their worth in April. The key is to properly identify them, and to pay as close as possible to what they're worth now, rather than what they'll be worth at the end of the season. Here's the most likely candidates for 2004, with their values for auction and draft leagues: 

• Miguel Cabrera and Josh Beckett: These two youngsters are coupled for the purposes of evaluation because they occupy together a unique place in recent baseball history. Not for several decades have highly touted young players emerged as quickly to help a team win a World Series. Francisco Rodriguez doesn't count, because his contributions as an eighth-inning reliever in 2002, while extremely valuable, don't measure up to what Cabrera and Beckett did last year as a power hitter and ace pitcher, respectively. Eighties Wunderkinds Cal Ripken (1983), Bret Saberhagen (1985), Straw and Doc (1986) and the Bash Brothers (1989) come the closest, but they all had more experience than the Marlin combo. The closest recent precedents in sports come from the NFL and NBA: Tom Brady and Tim Duncan led their teams to championships in their second seasons. Both won their second titles in the last year, so the future bodes well for Cabrera and Beckett. Cabrera seems certain to be the next Albert Pujols and Beckett has been compared, accurately, to fellow Texas fireballers Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens and Kerry Wood. Both will shine, and do so this year (Cabrera: $16, early 9^th round) (Beckett: $20, early 4^th round).

• Bobby Abreu: He seems to appear almost annually on lists such as this one, because although he's been a 30-30 man, he's demonstrated the capacity for even greater production. The past two seasons have been a tad disappointing, and have frustrated those hoping to benefit from his (inevitable?) power surge. At age 30, his breakthrough might come a bit later than is typical, but it still appears likely ($25, early 7^th round).

• Javier Vazquez: Much like Abreu, predictions of his emergence into superstardom seem to serve as an annual rite of spring. But this year, pitching for the supremely powerful Yankees, he'll have the support that he never had in Montreal (or Puerto Rico, for that matter). He's a legitimate dark horse candidate for the Cy Young Award ($20, early 4^th round).

• Brett Myers: Filthy stuff, a sturdy frame, a mentality reflecting that of the boxer he used to be - all he needs is experience. He will join the Prior/Oswalt tier of pitchers in the National League one of these years. Fantasy players would do well to plan for that move this season ($8, mid-13^th round).

• Kurt Ainsworth: All he needed in San Francisco were opportunities, and the powers that be didn't provide enough of them. Then he got hurt, although he's fully recovered. In Baltimore, he'll be challenged by the bandbox dimensions of the park, but will have abundant opportunities and enviable run support. He should be an above-average pitcher in 2004 and he won't cost much ($6, mid-13^th round).

• Austin Kearns: He's on this list only because his 2003 season was injury-shortened. He was en route to posting outstanding numbers, and logic holds that he'll continue his sharp upward trajectory this year ($20, early 9^th round).

• Alex Cintron: This impressive young D-Back projects as one of the next top-tier shortstops in the National League … and he's 26 years old, which demonstrates that he could well be primed to make that move sooner rather than later. He won't cost much, and he'll be a legitimate starter for fantasy teams ($13, early 9^th round).

• D'Angelo Jimenez: Much like Cintron, he broke through in 2003 to post decent numbers … and, to further note the similarities, he's just a year older at 27. And like Cintron, he'll be a respectable starter for teams that miss out on a top-tier fantasy second baseman ($14, late 7^th round). 
  

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