During the process of compiling my draft board, which I certainly urge everyone to check out, I take a look around the landscape at the opinions of the top fantasy baseball publications.  It’s a tremendous opportunity to compare my forecasts for the value of certain players against those of my peers.

One of my methods of preparation, found on my draft board, is to take an average of the rankings of these magazines.  When I find a great variance with my own rankings, I am left with lists of players I find to be overhyped and underhyped by the fantasy media.

As with any such lists that I compile, understand that I am not saying that the underhyped players should be acquired at all costs nor the overhyped players ignored completely.  One of the primary mottos at Drafthelp.com, as echoed frequently on our “Drafthelp.com Fantasy Insider” webcasts, is “Acquire the player at your cost, not at any cost.”  What I urge is for you to slot all players mentioned here, as well as all players overall, according to their true value and not according to what a flawed conventional wisdom is telling you.

For some players, their value is out of whack relative to where they are slotted at their position and for others, the variance comes with where they are ranked overall.  For each player, I will make mention of either where they came out overall in the rankings or where they ended up at their position in order to make clear the primary problem with the perceptions surrounding them.

UNDERHYPED

• Ivan Rodriguez (ranked tied for 36^th overall) and Victor Martinez (ranked tied for 41^st overall): Both of these players clearly possess late second-round value, but they suffer unfairly for the fact that their numbers are not “Piazza-in-his-prime.”  As the best catchers, and ones who couple decent pop with good batting average, they deserve better.
• Mark Prior (ranked 35^th overall) and Jason Schmidt (ranked tied for 27^th overall): Both of these players are worthy of being selected in the early second round, and each would easily command first-round value were there no questions surrounding their awesome arms.  Neither gives any indication of being anything other than 100% at the moment, so disregard the inflated fears of the experts and accept a franchise pitcher when he falls into your lap.
• Oliver Perez (not ranked in the Top 50 overall), Jake Peavy (not ranked in the Top 50 overall) and Roy Oswalt (ranked 39^th overall): Frankly, the conventional wisdom is behind the curve.  The future is now with these young guns and you should be very grateful if you can land any of them as your ace.
• Danny Kolb (not ranked in the Top 15 relief pitchers): His breakthrough year in Milwaukee seems to count for little with the fantasy intelligentsia, but don’t you be as shortsighted.  With his move to Atlanta , he will certainly be a top-tier option again at closer.
• Jason Bay (ranked tied for 24^th at outfielder): The assumption seems to be that he will build slow and steady off of last year’s very good rookie campaign.  The batting eye he flashed, which was awesome for such an inexperienced major leaguer, indicates otherwise.
• Alex Sanchez (not ranked in the Top 50 outfielders): Let me get this straight.  Sanchez, who admittedly is weak in OBP, who was banged up in 2004, but who nonetheless hit .322 that year, is given no respect, while Scott Podsednik is ranked 16^th by the experts?  The same Podsednik who hit .244 last year?  The fact is that both speed demons bring their fair share of questions and you should slot them closely together – which means that Sanchez is very underhyped and Podsednik is (relative to Sanchez) very overhyped.
• Jim Thome (ranked 8^th at first base): The right corner of the infield is stocked supremely deep, as always.  But deep enough to relegate him to eighth place at that position?  Not in 2005, anyway.
• John Smoltz (ranked 39^th at starting pitcher): Granted, the stamina of John Smoltz ranks as one of the foremost fantasy questions of 2005.  But, based on his consistently strong numbers of the last 15 years and the confidence that the Braves and Leo Mazzone have in him, he merits significantly more respect.
• Brad Penny (not ranked in the Top 50 pitchers): The nerve injury he suffered in late 2004 is scary.  But his upside is Top 15, so don’t be afraid to roll the dice on him in the mid rounds.

OVERHYPED

• Scott Rolen (ranked 16^th overall): Finally in 2004, Rolen had the fantasy monster season that has been forecast for him for so long.  But the third base position is far too deep to justify taking Rolen in the second round.
• Edgar Renteria (ranked tied for 23^rd overall): Coming off a down year, the consensus seems to be that he’ll bounce back strong in 2005.  But will he?  It’s easy to imagine that his power will come back in Fenway, although moving to the American League may bring the usual transitional issues.  However, his stolen bases should plummet even more now that he’s joined one of baseball’s most notorious station-to-station teams.  Buyer beware.
• Gary Sheffield (ranked 18^th overall): He’s a strong four-category star, but he faces increased scrutiny as a result of his involvement in the BALCO scandal and he’s at a very deep position.  Don’t overpay for him.
• Eric Gagne (ranked 17^th overall): I’m on record as proclaiming that closers are overvalued as a whole.  But no player is as potentially overvalued as Eric Gagne.  While I agree that he’s the top closer in baseball, if you follow the experts and select him in the second round, you’ll be acquiring a closer whose value is not dramatically more than those just below him while simultaneously passing on key players who can help you win.  In other words, you’ll be the kind of fantasy owner who contributes his entry money to those of us who are better prepared.
• Pedro Martinez (ranked 3^rd at starting pitcher): Marking out for Pedro is soooo 2003.  Don’t make the mistake of overpaying as the Mets did.  He’s one player who you probably won’t acquire if you don’t reach for him, so resign yourself to being a Pedro-free winner in 2005.
• Mike Mussina (ranked 15^th at pitcher): He still has some nice upside, and will probably bounce back from 2004, but don’t get carried away.
• Livan Hernandez (ranked tied for 20^th at starting pitcher) and Mark Buehrle (ranked 18^th at starting pitcher): Simply put, these pitchers are slotted way too high for workhorses.  Pitchers ranked where they’re at should have much more upside than this.
• Carlos Lee (ranked 10^th at outfielder): He had a great 2004, but didn’t rank in the Top 10 of any of the standard 5X5 categories.  Plus, he’s changing leagues.  Buyer beware.
• Johnny Damon (ranked 14^th at outfielder): Granted, he helps across a broader spectrum of the 5X5 categories than do most players, but don’t pay a price for him that assumes you’ll receive his 2004 production as opposed to his 2003 numbers.
• Brian Giles (ranked 20^th at outfielder): Given the trendline of his numbers, his advancing age, and the “Petco effect,” one can only conclude that his ranking is completely inexplicable.
• Jason Kendall (ranked 4^th at catcher): He’s changing leagues, moving to a tougher hitters’ park and only hit three home runs last year.  Other than that, he’s top-notch!