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The
State of Your Team
by Ray
Flowers
June 14, 2004
PART II- BUY
In PART II of this article we will give you
the scoop on who you should try and pry away from your competition. Also
recall from PART I that we are not concerned with the overall
totals of each player; we are concerned with how they will perform from
this point forward. Remember the old adage, without risk there is little
reward.
Stats as of June 22, 2004
Stats: Avg., HR, RBI, Runs, SB, OPS
C - Joe Mauer
2004 Stats- .286,3,8,10,0,.919 (in 49 AB)
Is Mauer all the way back from his knee
injury? Well according to Mauer he sure is (http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/news?slug=mlbpa-joemauercatchingupafterd&prov=mlbpa&type=news).
The #1 pick in the country in 2001 just ahead of Mark Prior, is the
darling of the Twins organization. We are especially interested in that
.919 OPS of his, a total which would place him in the Jorge Posada, Mike
Piazza class (though if we had to compare Mauer when he matures to a
current catcher, he figures to be more of a Pudge Rodriguez type
hitter…but that ain’t half bad either). Mauer might be a free agent in
your league right now, but if he isn’t you might want to try and pick up
the guy, he could hit .305,6,35 in the second half if healthy. Also the
chance of a 2nd half slide that most catchers experience is
minimized because he missed so much time in the first half due to his
injury.
1B- Jason Giambi
2004 Stats- .250,11,31,28,0,.871
3 Year Avg.- .302, 40,116,109,2,1.026
How could we recommend this one-legged,
lefty-swinging, possible steroid using former slugger? Because he is
Jason Giambi. There is no way that he plays this bad for the whole season,
no way (currently he’s on pace for .250,27,75 which would be his worst
year ever). We gotta admit that there really isn’t any reason to agree
with us, but it’s just a gut call on our behalf (his totals in June thus
far have produced, if you can call what he’s done producing, his worst
month statistically of the season: .196,2,7). Even if he only matches last
years totals (.250,41,107) he’s still in for a monster 2nd
half. We bet he gets there.
2B- Jose Vidro
2004 Stats- .268,6,31,21,2,.732
3 Year Avg.- .315,16,73,87,3,.859
We wanted to list Bret Boone, but he will
probably still be highly valued because of his power numbers the past
three years. That said, get Vidro while you still can, his hot streak has
started and it just might last for the rest of the season. Vlad or not
Vidro can hit, and his performance this year, mirroring the impotent Expos
offense, has been perplexing. This man is a career .303 hitter who was
hitting .233 at the start of June, something that eventually had to
change. Since June 1st it has as he has brought his average up
to .268 overall (his June numbers: .366,2,16,12,1,.929). Grab him while
the price still reflects his poor start.
3B- Eric Hinske
2004 Stats- .245,6,31,28,6,.692
2 Year Avg.- .256,18,74,87,13,.812
Just who is Hinske? Is he the Rookie of the
Year performer or the struggling gap hitter of last season (he did produce
45 2B last year)? Good question. We’re betting that he’s just simply a
solid major leaguer who’s continuing to grow as a hitter. There are
other 3B we might suggest that you pick up, but there are a couple of
reasons we suggest Hinske. First, he was injured last year, so some of the
appreciation for his talents may have vanished. Second, he has had a slow
start this season and has plenty of room to grow. Third, the Blue Jays
have yet to hit, and that just can’t last especially when Carlos Delgado
and Vernon Wells return. Fourth, in his first two years, he has a higher
AVG, OBP, SLG an OPS in the second half of the season. Couple that with
the fact that he’s hitting ..315,2,10 with 3 steals in June, and his
ascent to the top rung of fantasy 3B might be resuming.
SS- Edgar Renteria
2004 Stats- .275,4,30,38,8,.704
3 Year Avg.- .300,11,80,76,24,.794
Three years in a row, from 2001-2003,
Renteria’s stats went up in the following categories: AVG, HR,
RBI, Runs, SB, OPS, Hits…that’s right, for three straight years ALL of
his core stats have gone up! Now he probably won't match his numbers from
last year, not with his slow start, but his 2002 season numbers are still
attainable (.305,11,83,77,22 which closely mirror his 3 year average by
the way). Plus he’s had season highs in June in AVG ,OBP, SLG an OPS.
You’d take that wouldn’t you?
OF- Andruw Jones
2004 Stats- .248,12,37,39,2,.826
3 Year Avg.- .264,35,105,99,8,.830
Now this is an obvious choice, and the only
way your really going to pull this one off is to get him from an owner who
is out to lunch, but its worth the chance because one of these years
Andrews’s gonna break out isn’t he (for goodness sakes, he’s still
only 27)? Hell, he’s still on pace for 29 HR and 90 RBI/Runs even with
this slow start. With Rafael Furcal and Chipper back in the lineup, the
Braves figure to make their annual run at the division title, but now may
be time for this Jones to lead the Braves to the title. People often look
at AVG and allow that one stat to dictate their decisions so if someone
undervalues Andruw based on his, swoop him up. Heck, if he matches last
years .277 average he’ll hit over .300 from this point on.
OF- Brian Giles
2004 Stats- .273,10,42,42,5,.817
3 Year Avg.- .302,32,95,101,11,1.000
OK, Petco is the worst HR park in the
majors so far this year (only 44 HR have been hit there, or 36.7% less
than the average park), but this is Brain Giles right? Giles will probably
fall right around 25 HR this year, but he still has to bring that average
up while collecting a lot of doubles in that expansive OF right? After a
horrendous April (.238,4,14), he rebounded with an extremely strong May
(.330,5,20). However, June has seen a return to his April level
(.230,1,8). But Giles is too good to be this bad…his record just will
just not allow it. Factor in the Padres being in the pennant race,
something he rarely experienced in Pittsburgh, and we say the man comes
through big time.
OF- Shawn Green
2004 Stats- .254,9,33,36,2,.760
3 Year Avg.- .288,37,108,105,11,.907
What the heck happened to Shawn? There was
a time when you wouldn’t have traded this guy for any OF not named
Ramirez, Sosa or Bonds. His three year average for homers, 37, includes
last years total of only 19. He’s stopped running, his average has
fallen, and his power has almost disappeared (.760 OPS for him is flat out
embarrassing). So why do we recommend him? Unless Green has ebola or some
other life threatening illness this fall makes no sense. Sure he has an
injured shoulder, but so does Jeff Bagwell and while he cant make a
90-foot throw, he still hits 30 HR a year. Following our theme, Green has
used June to bring his average up from .238 to .254, and when his infamous
hot streak hits, you want to have him on your team. Plus in his career
he’s a better hitter in the second half with a higher AVG, OPB, SLG an
OPS after the all-star break.
SP- Roy Oswalt
2004 Stats- 4-6,3.95 ERA,77 K,1.29 WHIP,0.60 SWIP
3 Year Avg.- 14-7,2.92, 153, 1.14, 0.72
This man perplexes us. His assortment of
pitches may best the best in the NL. So far this year he is experiencing
career worsts in ERA,WHIP, BAA, K rate and BB rate. So what’s wrong with
him? Nothing. In fact for the first time in a while he appears to be
healthy. So what gives? We say that the law of averages will balance out
by the end of the year, just give it time. What makes his stats
particularly hideous is his horrid June (1-2, 6.11ERA, and 1.61 WHIP). But
a look at his career stats show that he’s better in the 2nd
half in ERA, WHIP, and BAA so a turnaround is likely. Plus, 15 wins and
200 K are still very possible (meaning you’d be getting a guy who would
win 11 games with 123 K from now). Throw in the fact that he’s likely to
lower his ERA to around 3.20 by seasons end, and you have lots of room for
improvement with this man. One last point: with 4.24 runs of support this
year, Oswalt ranks only 79th out of all starting pitchers thus
far in offensive support.
SP- Bartolo Colon
2004 Stats- 4-6,6.04,63,1.57,0.41
3 Year Avg.- 16-11,3.62,174,1.20,0.42
You thought Oswalt was off a bit, well
Colon has turned into Colby Lewis all of a sudden. Is it his massive
girth? Does he have a potentially career threatening arm problem? We say
no to both of those. But there are major issues to discuss. Firstly, Colon
leads the AL in HR allowed (21), after allowing an average of 25 his first
6 seasons. Second, he is on pace for career worsts in most major
categories. But do not despair. We watched Colon’s last outing, and
while he did give up 3 bombs (they were all solo), he only allowed those
three runs. He was still throwing 95 mph in the 8th inning, so
the heat is still there (his career K rate prior to 2004 is 7.25 per 9/IP
and this year it is still fairly high: 6.91). Also his career walk rate of
3.40 per 9/IP prior to this year has actually gone down to 3.18 in 2004.
So if his K rate and BB rate have held steady, maybe it’s just the HR
that have bothered him? Well his BAA against sits at .299, and for a guy
who’s career average is .255, something must be up. We say he has just
had some bad luck with some bloop hits, and if he can curb that gopher
ball rate, he’ll be fine. Historically July has been his best month, so
take a chance on this ace. His overall numbers might still blow, but from
here out he might be someone you want on your team. You could probably get
him for some belly button lint at this point, so why not try.
RP- Brad Lidge
2004 Stats- 1-3,2.45 ERA,0.97 WHIP,1 Sv,1.24 SWIP
Last Year Avg.- 6-3,3.60, 1.20, 1, .65
Trade rumors are starting to swirl around
Astros closer Octavio Dotel and who do you think will take his place if
he’s traded? Also if you watch Baseball Tonight on ESPN, you’ve
heard Peter Gammons state that according to the players he talks to, Lidge
has the best slider in baseball, even better than Randy Johnson’s.
Another salient factor attesting to this guys dominance is his current
SWIP of 1.24 (to put that in perspective, the last two years Eric
Gagne’s is 1.31). With stuff that filthy, and a manager in Jimmy
Williams who seemingly switches pitchers before the hitter reaches first
base on a single, Lidge is in line to compliment his dominant totals with
some save chances. If Dotel does get traded, Lidge has to vault right up
to the top of the closer list. Just pray his arm troubles are behind him.
RAYS NOTES:
Did you know that the record for RBI in an inning is 8 by Fernando Tatis
who on April 23, 1999, when hit two grand slams in the third inning off of
Chan Ho Park?
Ray Flowers can be reached
with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@drafthelp.com
You can also visit Rays’
blog at www.wildpitch.blogspot.com
for a full review of all of his recent article and other interesting
stuff.
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