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Core
Player Strategies: AL, NL and Mixed Leagues
by
Rick Morris - Feb
17th, 2004
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Truly
astute players know not to use a one-size-fits-all approach to
different fantasy formats. A strategy used in a mixed-league
setting should be dissimilar to one deployed in an AL-only league
and an NL-only league. Of course, the means by which one
differentiates change each year. Here's a look at the state of
strategy in 2004:
Mixed
leagues: The tide continues to recede from the late '90s
burst of offense in baseball. At that time, owners were
well-advised to select the few top-level fantasy pitchers early
because they were so few and far between. Over the past three
years, an influx of elite arms into baseball has turned this
equation upside down. Top hitters should now be given
preference, at least on balance. Offensive numbers are now more
similar to the '94-'97 era, rather than '98-'01. This means more
offense than in most eras of baseball, but below the ridiculous
times of McGwire/Sosa and the 1930s. Plus, baseball boasts more
top arms now than in the mid-'90s, and with the steroid scandal
finally coming to a boil, look for many top producers to stop
juicing up and for their numbers to tumble. Put your emphasis on
the bats you can trust. Also, try to get one of the top
half-dozen producers at as many positions as you can from the
following list: catcher, second base, shortstop and third base.
And when you do move on to the mound, don't wait very late to
take a top closer. While my colleague Pat Luft's “Closer
Impact” article gives you the tools you need to succeed, you'd
still be wise to duck as much of the volatility as you can in
the closer market. This means giving credence to an early
selection of Eric Gagne, John Smoltz, Keith Foulke, Mariano
Rivera, Billy Wagner or Octavio Dotel.
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AL-only
leagues: In this format, as well as the mixed-league one,
ARod is the top pick, hands-down. Frankly, there are fewer
than usual differences this year in strategies between the two
formats. Many of the above points can be utilized here as
well. However, there's always one exception to any rule and he
resides in Tampa. Given that Aubrey Huff has dual-position
eligibility in most leagues (first base and outfield), he is
the player who is rated the most differently in the two
formats. From a $30 value in mixed-league auctions and a late
second-round value in mixed-league drafts, he rises to $36 and
a late-first round value in AL formats. An additional item
worth noting is that the NL was perceived in many quarters to
have a superior base of talent over the last few years. The
ebb-and-flow of the offseason reversed that trend decisively,
fueled largely by the Yankee/Red Sox rivalry and game of
“Can You Top This?” Players in AL-only leagues have far
more dependable hitters and pitchers available to them than do
players in NL-only leagues.
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NL-only
leagues: The aforementioned exodus of top players to the
American League particularly impacts those trying to build
pitching staffs in NL-only leagues. They face significant
challenges, and as such should put a greater emphasis on
procuring solid pitching early than should players in the
other formats. And while Aubrey Huff is the player whose value
increases the most in AL-only leagues, Mike Piazza fills that
role in NL-only leagues. He is the only top-tier catcher in
such leagues, and carries with him the promise of
dual-eligibility if he finally begins his long-awaited
transition to first base this year. From the mixed-league
auction value of $23 and mixed-league draft value of the
mid-third round, he rises to $30 and the early-second round of
NL-only drafts. Last year, Jorge Posada was the AL equivalent
of Piazza. He was touted as such in this space. Prior to the
emergence of Jason Varitek and the move of Ivan Rodriguez and
Javy Lopez to the AL, Posada was the Alpha and Omega of
American League catchers. So how did the practical application
of our advice pan out? The Glenn Colton/Rick Wolf partnership
won the AL-only League of Alternative Reality (LABR) expert
league with Posada behind the plate and the owners have
acknowledged him as a team cornerstone. We're still waiting
for our cut of the winnings, gentlemen!
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