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Lay Up's for December
by Ray Flowers
Dec 5, 2004

As we begin December it’s an opportune time to review how your favorite NBA players start to the 2004-2005 season has gone.  Which players are in line to get a new shoe contract?  Which players appear to be playing with a ball that needs some air?  Here are some fast break notes to give you direction in your quest for the championship.

PART I  All-stars   (Part 2 Below Non-November Stars)

A quick note.  With the Pacers and Pistons melee a few weeks back, the fantasy fortunes of many teams have been changed (including one of our own at Drafthelp who, in spite of my warnings, picked Jermaine Oneal in our Fantasy Roundtable draft that was heard at: www.sportstalkcleveland.com).  It therefore goes without saying which category these players fall in to, but we won’t concern ourselves with that problem here and therefore we’ll just leave them off of our lists.

*Rankings listed here are as of December 2^nd, according to Yahoo.com (ranked by: Points, Rebounds, Assists, FG%, FT%, 3 Pt. made, Steals, Blocks, Turnovers). 

** Player listed in Italics is the surprise of the first month at each position.

PART I

November All-Stars

GUARDS

JAMES, your humble writers pick in our pre-season draft, is producing numbers that would make MICHAEL JORDAN feel comfortable.  In fact, here are Jordan’s numbers in his second full season: 37.1 pts, 5.2 Reb, 4.6 Ast., 48.2 FG% with 2.9 Steals (LeBron averages 2.4 steals).  Closer than you thought huh?  Plus don’t forget that Jordan was 23 years old during that 1987 season…James is but 19!  Think about that one for a while.

ALLEN is on this list despite a low FG% because he is 9^th in the league in FT% and 1^st in 3 pointers made (46 for 115, or 40.2%).

WADE was touted as an up and comer this year with the arrival of SHAQ, but who knew?  It could easily be argued that he is the fantasy MVP of the first month considering he was most probably a 3^rd or 4^th round pick in most drafts.  Here are his league rankings amongst guards: 3^rd in scoring, 6^th in Reb., 7^th in Ast. and 3^rd in FG% (51.4 from a guard is no joke).  Any arguments that he was a fantasy MVP for November? 

CENTERS

NOWITZKI has everything right where you would expect it except for his huge rebound total (his previous career high is 9.9).

DUNCAN is his consistently boring, yet ultra-effective self.

LaFRENTZ is finally healthy and playing like it’s 2001.  His numbers thus far would put him right about number 6 or 7 amongst all centers in the NBA.  And don’t forget how much a 51% shooter in the NBA these days can help you out.  If your league still hasn’t discovered his health, swoop him up. 

FORWARDS

MARION ranks here because of his all around excellence (his team Amare Stoudemire is ranked below).  Slow but steady improvement is the name of the game for this Sun who forms a fearsome tri-fecta with AMARE STOUDEMIRE and STEVE NASH (Marion ranks ahead of Garnett because of his three totals and the fact that he has half as many turnovers). 

GARNETT…well duh, he’s the man.  With his assists and rebounds up this year (in fact he’s leading the league with an average of 15.0 Reb. over Duncan who is 2^nd with 12.9), we might just be seeing a back to back MVP award winner, though it is still extremely earlier for such prognostication.  This would be his 6^th straight season with averages over 20 points, 10 boards, and 5 assists (it would be 7 but he averaged only 4.3 assists in 1998.

KORVER, the goofy looking surfer dude from Cali, has had a monster opening to the 2004 season.  Averaging only 12 minutes per game last year and producing mediocre stats (4.5 pts, 1.5 Reb, 0.5 Ast), Korver has been bumped to 30 minutes a game, and his production has risen dramatically.  Just goes to show you that some astute research can pay heavy dividends on draft day.  Not to mention that his cause was greatly aided by the fact that the BIG DOG can’t play defense and is continually beaten up.  Oh yeah, Korver also leads the NBA with an average of 3.1 three pointers made per game (while shooting 46.3% on them). 

Other Notables

GUARDS

RALSTON derives his value largely from his 2.1 three pointers made per game (he just lost his streak of hitting a 3-pointer in 61 straight games).  Not too bad a start for a guy barely on many fantasy drafters draftboards. 

JARIC is a success story in his own right.  At this point Jaric is averaging career high numbers in every major category for the surprising Clippers (10-6 as of Dec. 2^nd). 

HUGHES, an old Warrior favorite, just had his first triple double on Nov. 28^th (33, 10, 10).  A player who is always overlooked on draft day, about the only thing he struggles in are his FG% and turnover rate (down to 2.0 from 2.5 last year).  Hughes is currently 12^th amongst all G in scoring and 4^th in rebounding while leading the entire NBA in steals per game (2.9).  Not bad production for a late round guy.

KNIGHT was thought of as a solid reserve point guard coming out of Stanford.  Unfortunately he was never able to match the pro games speed, or develop because of his height (5’10”).  However, it appears this 29 year old has just figured it out as evidenced by his assist average of 9.0 that places him second in the league.  The reason he is included on this list is because no one who wasn’t related to him would have drafted him this year, and he might still even be a free agent in your league right now. 

FORWARD/CENTER

Where have you come from BOBBY SIMMONS?  This former 2^nd round pick has blown-up this year averaging more than twice as many points an assists this year versus last.  Coming into the season as a career 39.4% shooter, Simmons currently sits 4^th in the NBA at 55.7% (he’s also 8^th in the NBA in FT%).  If not overlooked completely this year, he was late round gamble in most if not all drafts.

STOUDEMIRE isn’t as much of a stretch as some of the others on this list, but he has nonetheless begun to fulfill the vast potential that his physical gifts will afford him.  The only reason that his teammate Marion was chosen over A.S. is because his all around game is a bit superior (greater Reb, Ast and Steal totals).  In another year, that may not be the case for the NBA’s 3^rd leading scorer. 

HILL has been the man of the hour for those lucky fantasy owners (yes lucky…you can’t pick a guy who has played a total of 47 games the last three years and say it was skill).  We wish him all the best in his continued resurgence this year…but you might want to parlay him into some other players before the inevitable end comes.

MOHAMMAD while trade rumors swirl around NY, Mohammad just keeps putting up solid all-around numbers.  Two things to point out: Mohammad averages under 1.0 block per game, poor for a C, and he has 2 assists in 14 games…2 freakin’ assists!!!  That alone should have kept him off the list.  Pass the pill once a game will ya’ Mohammad?

PART II - Non-November Stars (Flops)

Here are some players who have thus far really been disappointments to both their, and your, team. Some of these names are former all-stars…is it too late for them to make it back this year?

*Rankings listed here are as of December 2^nd, according to Yahoo.com (ranked by: Points, Rebounds, Assists, FG%, FT%, 3 Pt. made, Steals, Blocks, Turnovers).

GUARD

TERRY has been pretty much a bust so far for the Mavs.  Look at his numbers from the Hawks last year: 16.8, 4.2, 5.4 (funny thing is his shooting percentage is way up from last years 41.7).  Not what Don Nelson had expected from this scorer.

Much was expected out of both MILLER and the Nuggets this year (both are off to rocky starts).  Miller hasn’t been horrible, but he sure hasn’t taken that next step either (he is on pace for three year lows in points, rebounds an assists).  Miller usually gets hot as the year progresses…the Nuggets have to hope that trend continues. 

CASSELL has had a very rough start to his season scoring over 20 points only twice in 14 contests an haing only one game with over 10 assists in November.  His FG%, scoring avg, assist total, steal total, block total, and 3 point total are all down from last year. Not the kind of start you want from your point guard if you hope to win the NBA title.

Slim pickin’s at C since a whole bunch of them are no good.  But this is what we came up with.

CENTER

RATLIFF, the reigning NBA shot block leader, has suffered through an injury plagued first month. 

His blocks per game are still holding rather strong at 2.6, but everything else in his game has gone south (his scoring and rebounding numbers are virtually halved from last years 7.3, 7.3).  As for his assist total…look up pathetic in the dictionary.

DALEMBERT was supposed to do great things this year.  He hasn’t.  After finishing last year on such a  high note , he started the season coming off the bench and hasn’t done much to move the Philly brass into putting him in the starting lineup.  In fact he has only scored in double digits once this year, as well as having only one 10 rebound game. 

FORWARD

HARRINGTON was supposed to make the jump this year to standout with an increase in playing time.  So far, he hasn’t taken a jump, it’s been more like an elongated step.  How does a F like Harrington shoot a rather  miserable 43.5% from the floor (not to mention his putrid foul shooting).  With 10 minutes more per game this year to show off his talents, Harrington has barely moved on last years numbers (13.3, 6.4, 1.7).  Maybe he still will, or maybe he will just continue to be a nice player but not one to bet your kids school tuition on.

MARSHALL has been injured this year, but there were many people way to high on this former Connecticut standout heading into 2004.  After producing one of the two best seasons of his career, the other being in 1999 for Golden State, Marshall has regressed to what he is…a complimentary player and not a star.  We are sure his numbers will come up a bit, but don’t count on him bettering last years numbers… just pray that he gets close. 

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