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2002 SLEEPERS AND STINKERS

by Nathan Noy and Pat Luft

As with last season’s list the purpose of this report is to identify players that are potentially too high or too low in everyone’s rankings.  We are not advocating taking Lamar Smith over Marshall Faulk, but if Lamar falls to the 4th round in your league you’d better grab him.  We also identify players that are obviously over-hyped and should not warrant the pick they are likely to go at in your league.

Nathan Noy's Picks for 2002

The “SLEEPERS”

  1. Brian Griese, QB Den

  2. Danny Wuerffel, QB Was

  3. Edgerrin James, RB Ind

  4. Drew Bledsoe, QB Buf

  5. Lamar Smith, RB Car

  6. Antonio Freeman, WR Phil
  7. Eric Moulds, WR Buf

  8. Fred Taylor, RB Jack

  9. Tiki Barber, RB NYG

  10. Terry Glenn, WR GB

Pat Luft's Picks for 2002

The “SLEEPERS”

  1. Fred Taylor, RB Jack
  2. Jamal Lewis, RB Balt
  3. Anthony Thomas, RB Chic
  4. Peerless Price, WR Buf
  5. Curtis Conway, WR SD
  6. Antonio Freeman, WR Phil
  7. Johnnie Morton, WR KC
  8. Darrell Jackson, WR SEA
  9. Rich Gannon, QB Oak
  10. Mike Alstott, RB TB

The “STINKERS”

  1. Shaun Alexander, RB Sea

  2. Priest Holmes, RB KC
  3. Emmitt Smith, RB Dal
  4. Deuce McAllister, RB NO

  5. Aaron Brooks, QB NO
  6. James Thrash, WR Phil

  7. Michael Vick, QB Atl

  8. David Carr, QB Hou

  9. Trent Green, QB KC

  10. Mike Alstott, RB TB

The “STINKERS

  1. Randy Moss, WR Min
  2. Jimmy "Hold Out" Smith, WR Jack
  3. Michael Pittman, RB TB
  4. William Green, RB Clev
  5. Bill Schroeder, WR Det
  6. Derrick Alexander, WR Min
  7. Tom Brady, QB NE
  8. Michael Vick, QB Atl
  9. Thomas Jones, RB Ari
  10. Mark Brunnell, QB Jack

SLEEPERS - Review and Analysis

NATHAN's PICKS

PAT's PICKS

  1. Griese: He will be the 4th or 5th best fantasy quarterback in football this year.  A healthy Eddie McCaffery and the return of Shannon Sharpe at TE, and of course a top-5 RC on anyone’s list in Rod Smith will give the Broncos the best RC core in the NFL.  Griese had a very disappointing season last year, but should rebound nicely.  If you don’t have a QB in the 2nd round then you should consider him, if he is till on your board in the 3rd then you MUST take him.

  2. Wuerffel: This guy is a legitimate 2nd-tier QB this season.  I rank him the 10th or 11th best in the league.  He is familiar with the high-powered offensive system the Redskins will utilize.  He has two very underrated RC’s in Rob Gardner and Jaquez Green.  He’ll probably still be on the board in the 9th or 10th round of your draft, if he is, then you need to take him.  He could approach 3000+ yards and throw 25+ TD’s, well worth a shot in the mid-rounds.

    (Special note: the day after this was published Wuerffel lost his starting job to Shane Matthews. You should adjust your rankings accordingly and move Wuerffel to the end of your draft board (he’s still worth a gamble with a very late pick.))

  3. James: He’ll regain his form from 2001 and before.  He’ll likely still be on the board in the 2nd round of your draft, if he is, then jump all over him.  He will have 15+ TD’s and over 2000 yds from scrimmage. I have him as the 3rd best RB this year, behind Faulk and Rickey Williams.  The “Edge” will not disappoint this year.

  4. Bledsoe: A player with a lot to prove and the RC core that will help him do it.  Eric Moulds and Peerless Price are one of the top-5 combo’s in the league.  Bledsoe is the 7th or 8th best QB in the league this year fantasy wise.  If he makes it to the 3rd round in your league you should take him.

  5. L. Smith: It looks like his competition in Carolina De'Shaun Foster may come up lame.  Even without this injury Smith is still the best RB on the team.  He has a chance to regain his 1000+ yard 10+ TD form.  He is a power back that the Panters will go to at the goal line.  He is no worse than a 5th or 6th round pick in your league.

  6. Freeman: A man without a job a few weeks ago.  Now it looks like he will be the primary target in Philly.  Another player with a lot to prove, a 1000+ yard and 10+ TD season is well within reach. A solid 6th or 7th round pick in any league.

  7. Moulds: Finally he has a legitimate passing QB to get him the ball. A 1500+ yard 12+ TD season is on the way.  In my opinion he is the 4th best RC right after Moss, Owens, and Harrison.  He’ll likely fall to the 4th or 5th round in you league, if he does, then don’t hesitate on taking him.

  8. Taylor: Likely forgotten on a number of lists this season.  Taylor is worthy of a late 3rd or early 4th round pick.  He should see 1200+ yards and 10+ TD’s this year.  The word is he is healthy, if so, he is one of the top-10 backs in the league.

  9. Barber: Outside of the East Coast this guy is underrated by nearly everyone.  He should approach 1800+ all-purpose yards.  He may not score as many TD’s as other featured backs, but he always seems to still be on the board in the 4th or 5th round in most leagues.
  10. Glenn: Should be the primary target for Favre in GB.  Glenn is another player with a lot of talent and a lot to prove this season.  He could join the league’s elite RC list once again.  He is a solid pick in the 4th or 5th round of your draft.

 

  1. Taylor: It's whether or or not he can run or not it's more like can this guy stay healthy long enough to help?   I think he can.  In fact, with Smith Holding out who else is going to touch the ball?   On top of that he gets to run over the Houston Defense twice.  Not to mention the helpless Indy "D" twice.  If his offensive line can stay healthy there is not reason not to expect the Taylor of old to return.  Don't run out and make him your number 1 pick, but if he is hanging around in the 3rd, you better jump all over him. 1200yds  7td  range and 1 td receiving.
  2. J.Lewis: Has already looked good in camp and in live action.  In fact he even thinks he is completely back, when was the last time you heard that?  Oh, wait that was Terrell telling me that,  seriously though, he has looked very good and easily pushes himself into the top 20 in RBs this year.  Chester Taylor is at least another year away from taking away carries.  Take him right after Taylor.  950 yds 7td and 1 receiving.
  3. Anthony Thomas:  Not a huge sleeper but in the drafts I have been in already he has slid a lot farther than he should falling to the 3rd round in a number of drafts including the FSIC experts draft we participated in. Easily a top 10 RB and with any luck Robinson can stay healthy and help to open the field even more.   1400 yds  10tds
  4. Price: Last year was no fluke this kid can burn and with a legitimate QB it is only going to get better.  Top it off by putting Moulds opposite him and we are easily talking 1000+ yds and 7tds...  Those poor corners are not even going to know what hit them. He is a great sleeper pick in the late 4th to 5th rounds when all the big 'names'  are gone.
  5. Alstott:  I know Nathan has him on his stinkers list but hey Pittman isn't healthy and who else is going to touch the ball.  Worse case, some small back will run from the 30 to 30 and Alstott will finish off the rest.  So not a ton of yards again this year but the scoring should be as good if not better since the passing game will have improved with McCardell's addition.

 

STINKERS - Review and Analysis

NATHAN's PICKS

PAT's PICKS

  1. Alexander: Talk about a player that has been over-hyped by the media: Alexander is a prime example. I can’t believe he is listed as a top-3 pick everywhere I look.  I don’t even have this guy in my top-20.  One season does not make a Shaun Alexander as valuable as a Ricky Williams, Curtis Martin, or a Corey Dillon. These are all guys I would take long before Alexander this season.  Don’t let one good season fool you (remember Icky Woods?)  Let some other sucker blow a 1st round pick on this guy.

  2. Holmes: Another guy that is listed as a top-10 pick by most.  He had a career year, but don’t expect anything that even remotely approaches last season’s league leading performance.  I peg him as a 3rd round pick, in the same group as a Fred Taylor, but rest assured that some sucker in your league will take him in the 1st or 2nd round.

  3. Emmitt: I still love Emmitt, but it’s all over for him.  After he breaks Payton’s career rushing record this year don’t expect to see much more of him.  He needs a little over 500 yards for the record and it will probably take him 9-10 games to get there.  After that he’ll likely be used as a back-up since Dallas is likely to be 2-8 at that point.  Take a gamble on someone else this year.

  4. McAllister: Don’t confuse this guy for Ricky Williams, because he definitely is NOT.  I would not touch the Deuce before the 5th or 6th round, but you cab bet someone in your league will take him by the 3rd or 4th. He may approach 1000 yards but he’ll be lucky to score 8 TD’s and he may not have the durability to last the entire season.

  5. Brooks: His fall last season was not as dramatic as I predicted.  You can wager that in most leagues Brooks will go long before Griese or Bledsoe, this is a huge mistake.  Let another team in your league watch Brooks rake in 20-25 INTs and little more.

  6. Thrash:  See A. Freeman above.  Thrash is no longer the go-to-guy in Philly.  He’s a second option; you should not consider drafting him in the 1st 10 rounds.

  7. Vick: in 2003 he may be a candidate for our “Sleepers” list.  But this year will be a long learning experience for Vick.  He may score 4 or 5 TD’s on the ground, but he’ll likely have more picks than TD passes (something that is not easily achieved.) Let Vick develop on someone else’s roster.

  8. Carr: As with Vick it’s generally best to avoid young QB’s unless you are in a keeper league and can afford to have them on your bench for an entire season.  If your league has negative points for INT’s you may be better off with a blank spot than Carr in your lineup this season, his year will be as painful if not more than Vick’s.

  9. Green: I saw this guy go before Bledsoe and Griese in a draft last week as well.  Tony Gonzalez may not play this year, and no one will be impacted by this more than Green.  Let someone else in your league deal with Green’s frustrating season.

  10. Alstott: Michael Pittamn should get a majority of the carries in TB.  In the past Dunn would get the Buccs into the red zone and Alstott would get the glory of the TD.  However, this year the Buccs are likely to let Pittman keep the ball the entire time.  If you get Pittman you may want to consider Alstott, otherwise let another team in your league watch him on the bench.

 

  1. Randy Moss:  Ok, I know after reading Nathan's Alexander blow off your thinking what are these guys talking about.  Now, I am by no means saying you shouldn't draft him in the 2nd round.  I am just saying let someone else waste a #1 on him.  He was shut down most of last season with C.Carter there.  Now what can we expect double and sometimes triple coverage's the entire game,  he will still get his 1300 yards and can outjump most of the NFL for at least 10+ Tds (probably 12 or so)...  But please don't rush out and take him with your #5 overall pick.  (For the recored I have Shaun Alexander my #4 RB and #6 overall, sorry Nathan).
  2. J.Smith: Holding out Still... Enough Said
  3. Pittman: Trying to comeback from knee and ankle injuries before the season starts, did finally see action in the last preseason game, He by no means warrants a top 20 RB rating and should really be an after thought instead of a #2 for your team.
  4. W.Green: still trying to hold off Jamal White for the #1 Running back in Cleveland.  Sore shoulder and has been keeping him out of practices and may be worth a VERY late pick but not as high I have been seeing go.  Let someone else take that chance that are plenty of similar backs out there to contend with.

 

 

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